How do I interpret the ET curve baseline and R² value?

The ET curve baseline and R² value tell you how predictable your building's energy use is based on outdoor temperature.

The baseline (regression line)

The purple line is a linear regression fitted to all your data points. It represents your building's average energy response: for any given temperature, the line shows the expected kWh/m²/week. A steep downward slope (left to right) means your building uses significantly more energy in cold weather — typical for heating-dominated buildings.

The R² value (coefficient of determination)

Displayed in the controls bar, R² ranges from 0 to 1. It measures how well temperature alone explains your energy consumption:

R² ≥ 0.7 (green): Strong correlation. Temperature is the primary driver of consumption. Your building is weather-dependent (common for well-managed heating-dominated buildings).
R² 0.4–0.7 (amber): Moderate correlation. Temperature matters, but other factors (occupancy, equipment schedules, operational changes) also play a significant role.
R² < 0.4 (red): Weak correlation. Temperature is not the main driver. This is typical for electricity-only buildings, buildings with process loads, or data with quality issues.

The ±% bands

The orange line (+10%) and green line (−10%) show a corridor around the baseline. Weeks outside these bands deserve attention:

Above the upper band: Consumption was unusually high for that temperature. Investigate: equipment malfunction, unusual occupancy, heating system running inefficiently.
Below the lower band: Consumption was unusually low. Could be a good sign (efficiency improvement) or a data gap (meter not reporting).

Practical tips

Compare year-over-year: If this year's dots consistently sit above last year's at the same temperatures, your building is becoming less efficient.
Use 24M period for the most reliable baseline (more data points = better regression).
A flat baseline (near-zero slope) means consumption barely changes with temperature — investigate base load.

Where: Analytics → Energy → ET Curve view (toggle at the left of the toolbar). Toggle Baseline and Bands buttons to show/hide.